The NFL playoff picture continued to take shape in Week 17, with major developments on Christmas Day reshaping both conferences. The Green Bay Packers officially clinched a postseason berth, while the Detroit Lions were eliminated following their loss to the Minnesota Vikings. With those results, 11 teams have now secured playoff spots, leaving just three remaining as the regular season nears its conclusion.
In the AFC, the Denver Broncos currently sit atop the conference with a 12–3 record. Denver controls its own destiny, as winning out would guarantee the No. 1 seed. The New England Patriots are tied with the Broncos at 12–3 but would lose the tiebreaker due to common games, keeping them slotted behind Denver for now.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, at 11–4, remain firmly in control of the AFC South and are widely viewed as the favorites to claim the division. In the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers hold a 9–6 record and remain in the driver’s seat as they push to secure a division title.
The wild-card race in the AFC is tightening, but several teams are already in strong positions. The Los Angeles Chargers lead the wild-card field at 11–4, holding an edge over the Buffalo Bills due to a better conference record. Buffalo, also 11–4, has clinched a wild-card berth and appears unlikely to overtake New England for the AFC East crown. The Houston Texans currently occupy the final wild-card spot at 10–5 and can lock it up by continuing to win down the stretch.
Outside the playoff field, the Indianapolis Colts remain mathematically alive at 8–7, though their chances of sneaking in are extremely slim. The Baltimore Ravens, now 7–8, are running out of time to catch Pittsburgh in the AFC North. The Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders have all been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks currently lead the conference at 12–3. Their recent win over the Los Angeles Rams strengthened their case for the No. 1 seed and gave them a crucial edge in the playoff race. The Chicago Bears are close behind at 11–4 and are one win—or a Packers loss—away from clinching the NFC North.
The Philadelphia Eagles have already locked up the NFC East with a 10–5 record, while the Carolina Panthers sit at 8–7 and remain in control of the NFC South as the season winds down.
The NFC wild-card picture is crowded at the top. The San Francisco 49ers hold a wild-card position at 11–4 and currently own the tiebreaker over the Rams due to their superior record within the NFC West. The Rams, also 11–4, saw their path become more difficult after losing to Seattle, likely forcing them to win multiple road games if they hope to reach the Super Bowl.
The Green Bay Packers, now 9–5–1, have officially clinched a playoff berth. However, their chances of winning the NFC North remain slim, as they would need to win both remaining games while the Bears lose both of theirs.
Several teams have been eliminated from NFC playoff contention following Week 17. The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, both sitting at 8–8, are out of the race. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 7–8, can no longer qualify for a wild-card spot but still have a narrow path to winning the NFC South. The Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals, and New York Giants have all been mathematically eliminated.
With one week remaining in the regular season, division titles, seeding, and the final playoff berths remain very much in flux. Week 18 will determine who survives, who advances, and how the postseason bracket ultimately shakes out.