The 2025–26 college football bowl schedule continues Friday with a tripleheader, and the middle game features an intriguing first-time matchup between Minnesota and New Mexico in the 2025 Rate Bowl. The Golden Gophers enter the game with a 7–5 record, while the Lobos arrive at 9–3, riding significant momentum into their first bowl appearance in nearly a decade.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix. Minnesota opened as a narrow favorite and remains a 1.5-point favorite according to DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total has climbed to 44.5 points after opening lower earlier in the week.
Minnesota comes into the bowl game with one of the most impressive postseason streaks in the country. The Golden Gophers have won eight consecutive bowl games, the longest active streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision and tied for the fourth-longest in college football history. That consistency in bowl settings has helped Minnesota earn respect despite a modest regular-season record.
New Mexico, meanwhile, is making its return to the postseason for the first time since 2016 and does so with confidence. The Lobos closed the regular season on a six-game winning streak, finishing 9–3 and positioning themselves as one of the most improved programs in the country this year. Friday’s game will mark the first meeting between the two schools.
Oddsmakers have set Minnesota as a slight favorite on the money line at -122, with New Mexico close behind at +102, reflecting expectations of a competitive contest. The spread has hovered around a field goal or less, suggesting there is little separation between the teams in projected performance.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, the total points market stands out in this matchup. The model is projecting the game to go over 44.5 points, forecasting an average of 54 combined points in its simulations. That projection aligns with recent trends, as both teams have frequently been involved in higher-scoring games when playing away from home or at neutral sites.
In road and neutral-site games this season, Minnesota and New Mexico have combined to go 8–3 to the over. Additionally, the recent history of the Rate Bowl has leaned heavily toward offense, with the last two editions of the game producing 85 total points each.
Defensively, both teams have shown strengths against the run but vulnerabilities in pass coverage. Minnesota and New Mexico each allow opponents to complete more than 68% of their passes, placing them among the worst seven teams nationally in that category. With both defenses susceptible through the air, the expectation is that each offense will rely heavily on the passing game, increasing the likelihood of sustained drives and scoring opportunities.
The SportsLine model projects the over to hit approximately 70% of the time based on its simulations. The model also indicates that one side of the spread cashes at close to a 60% rate, though that specific pick remains behind the paywall.
Minnesota’s bowl pedigree and New Mexico’s late-season surge set the stage for a competitive and potentially high-scoring matchup in Phoenix, as both programs look to close their seasons with a statement victory in the 2025 Rate Bowl.