The divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs opens Saturday with the Denver Broncos hosting the Buffalo Bills in a high-stakes AFC matchup.
Denver (14-3) earned a first-round bye as the conference’s top seed after closing the regular season with back-to-back wins. Buffalo (12-5) arrives riding momentum of its own, having won six of its last seven games, including a 27-24 road victory over Jacksonville in the wild-card round.
Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.
Current Odds
- Spread: Broncos -1.5
- Over/Under: 45.5 points
- Moneyline: Broncos -120, Bills +100
Injury Report
Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Defensive lineman Ed Oliver (bicep) and wide receiver Curtis Samuel (elbow) are listed as questionable.
Why Buffalo Could Cover
Buffalo has consistently performed well against Denver in recent years, covering the spread in eight of the last nine meetings between the teams, including games played in Denver. The Bills are also highly effective when protecting the football, remaining undefeated this season in games with zero turnovers and posting an 11-1 record when committing one or fewer.
Offensively, Buffalo showed balance in its wild-card win, overcoming one of the league’s top defenses. Denver enters the postseason with the fewest takeaways among playoff teams, which could limit its ability to capitalize on mistakes.
Why Denver Could Cover
Denver benefits from extra rest after its first-round bye and has been strong against the spread in recent games when holding a rest advantage. The Broncos’ pass rush is a major factor, having recorded 68 sacks during the season, one of the highest totals in league history.
Buffalo has struggled in games where quarterback Josh Allen faces consistent pressure, losing six straight contests in which he was sacked at least four times. Denver may also look to exploit Buffalo’s run defense, which ranked among the league’s weakest in rushing yards allowed.
Model Projection
Based on extensive simulations, the projected final score leans toward a higher-scoring game, with the total narrowly exceeding the 45.5-point line. One side of the spread emerges as the more likely cover in a majority of simulations, suggesting a close contest that could be decided late.
Saturday’s matchup sets up as a clash between Buffalo’s efficiency and Denver’s defensive pressure, with the outcome likely hinging on turnovers and quarterback protection.