SportsLine’s model has revealed its North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Memphis Tigers picks for the Gasparilla Bowl 2025 on Friday
The 2025 Gasparilla Bowl takes place on Friday when the NC State Wolfpack of the ACC face the Memphis Tigers of the American Conference. NC State (7-5) has won its last two games, most recently defeating UNC, 42-19, on Nov. 29. Memphis (8-4) has dropped three in a row and fell to Navy, 28-17, the last time it took the field on Nov. 27. Memphis will be led by interim head coach, Reggie Howard, after Ryan Silverfield left for the Arkansas Razorbacks head coach opening. Star North Carolina State running back Hollywood Smothers announced his intention to enter the transfer portal on Thursday.
Kickoff is at 2:30 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. The Wolfpack are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Memphis vs. NC State odds, while the over/under is 56.5. Before making any NC State vs. Memphis picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on NC State vs. Memphis. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Memphis vs. NC State:
How to make Memphis vs. NC State picks
After simulating NC State vs. Memphis 10,000 times, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (56.5 points). The Over is 4-1 for the Tigers over their last five games, and their last two bowl games have both eclipsed 60 total points. If both teams play according to the spread, then the Over should be reached as it’s 3-0 for Memphis when the Tigers are underdogs, while the Over is 4-1 for the Wolfpack when favored.
Both teams are known more for their offenses than their defenses, with the Tigers ranking 19th, nationally, in scoring but 48th in points allowed. Meanwhile, NC State is 46th in points per game but just 93rd in points allowed per game. The Wolfpack are also the type of team which doesn’t settle for field goals in the red zone, as their 80.5% red-zone touchdown percentage is the highest in all of FBS. Both squads are projected to allow at least five more points than their season averages, as the Over hits well over 60% of the time.
The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
The 2025 Gasparilla Bowl will be played Friday at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, featuring NC State against Memphis. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
NC State enters the game with a 7-5 record after finishing the regular season on a two-game winning streak, including a dominant 42-19 victory over rival North Carolina on Nov. 29. Memphis is 8-4 but limps into the bowl after losing three straight games, most recently a 28-17 defeat to Navy on Nov. 27. The Tigers will be coached by interim head coach Reggie Howard after Ryan Silverfield left to become Arkansas’ head coach.
The Wolfpack are listed as 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 56.5 points. NC State will be without star running back Hollywood Smothers, who announced Thursday that he plans to enter the transfer portal.
According to SportsLine’s projection model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, the game is expected to go over the total. Both teams rely heavily on offense and have struggled defensively. Memphis ranks 19th nationally in scoring offense but is 48th in points allowed, while NC State ranks 46th in scoring and 93rd in points allowed.
NC State has been especially efficient in the red zone, converting touchdowns on 80.5% of its red-zone trips, the highest rate in the country. Memphis’ recent bowl games have also been high-scoring, with its last two bowl appearances surpassing 60 total points.
The model projects both teams to allow more points than their season averages, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring game and reinforcing the expectation that the total will be exceeded.